Productive Stagnation and Unproductive Accumulation: An Econometric Analysis of the United States

In this paper I evaluate the dynamic interactions between productive and unproductive forms of capital accumulation in the United States economy from 1947 to 2011. I employ time series econometrics to formally assess two questions that other scholars have hitherto considered mostly through verbal or descriptive approaches. First, I check whether unproductive accumulation hinders or fosters productive accumulation. Second, I check whether or not productive stagnation leads to faster unproductive accumulation. I introduce different measures of productive and unproductive forms of capital accumulation using a new methodology to estimate Marxist categories from conventional input-output matrices, national income and product accounts, and fixed assets accounts. A core feature of my methodology is the notion that the production of knowledge and information is also a form of unproductive activity. Results indicate two-way positive effects between productive and unproductive activities in the short run but no self-correcting mechanism that would bring productive and unproductive forms of accumulation back to a stable equilibrium path over the long run.