Carbon Emissions from Fuel Combustion in the Economy of the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil (2005-2016)

The article assesses carbon emissions from fuel combustion in the economy of the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais between 2005 and 2016. An open Leontief model with hybrid units and incorporation of an energy sector was built using available input-output matrices and energy flows by economic sector. Overall, “Transport, storage, and mailing”, “Petroleum derivatives and ethanol”, and “Metallurgy” remained as the most relevant sectors in terms of emissions. Total and distributive impacts decreased between 2005 and 2013, with a trend reversal between 2013 and 2016. In addition to these sectors, “Mining” and “Agriculture, forestry and logging” were significant sources of emissions embedded in exports. A reduction of approximately 20% in sectoral average and aggregate emission requirements was observed, despite the substantial growth of the economy of the State in the period. There were decreasing returns to such gains, which, alongside the trend reversal at the end of the period, point to the role of specific macroeconomic factors in the observed outcomes and the need for new initiatives to curb emissions in the future.